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Plug-in Electric Cars May Be Halfway To Market Domination | CleanTechnica

This is a topic I’ve written about numerous times, but I just ran across some more numbers and studies that make me even more optimistic. When a new technology goes from no market share to market domination, it does not follow a linear growth trend. It follows an exponential growth curve — commonly, an S-curve. In other words, it may seem to be growing slowly at the beginning, but the dynamics of market growth and technology adoption are such that sales growth will then fly threw the roof before a lot of people in competing industries know what’s happening.

The Law of Accelerating Returns, discovered by Ray Kurzweil, an American inventor and entrepreneur, shows a similar trend for technology development. It has been shown time and time again to nail the exponential improvement trend. Tam Hunt of Community Renewable Solutions summarizes how it fit the development of the Human Genome project:

This was a government-funded effort to decode the entire human genome in about fifteen years. Well, halfway through the project the effort was only at about 1 percent completion. Many observers wrote off the effort as a failure that couldn’t possibly reach its goal. Kurzweil, however, wrote at the time that the game was won because 1 percent was halfway to 100 percent in the terms that actually mattered: the rate of improvement in sequencing technology.

And he was right. The Human Genome Project finished slightly early and helped to bring down the costs of genome sequencing technologies by orders of magnitude, as well as dramatic reductions in the time it takes for sequencing. We can now pay about $1,000 to sequence our own genome in a matter of days.



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