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Electric Vehicle Batteries Forecast

Lithium Ion Batteries for Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicles:
Market Analysis and Forecasts

Over the past few years, the automotive industry has increased its focus on the electric vehicle (EV) market by successfully introducing several new plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles as the process of moving away from petroleum based fuels and toward battery power intensifies. These vehicles will rely almost exclusively on lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries, while hybrid vehicles will slowly switch from nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) technology. While the cost of Li-ion batteries is gradually declining, cost still represents a significant hurdle as it accounts for a large portion of total EV cost.

The government subsidies that gave the initial impetus to the electric vehicle market will continue to drive the market in the near term. However, significant reductions in battery cost are imperative for the industry to grow to the $14.6 billion and 28 million kWh market that Pike Research forecasts by 2017. Nearly half of the demand is likely to come from Asia (led primarily by China) while Europe and the United States are likely to constitute 25% and 21% shares respectively. There are currently more than half a dozen battery chemistries with unique properties for power, energy density, and life cycle performance that are being commercialized. While there is no chemistry that emerges as the clear winner (owing to the tradeoffs in the various properties), initial indications point to a greater interest in the lithium iron phosphate chemistry in the years to come due to its superior performance characteristics coupled with increased safety.

This Pike Research report outlines the critical role that governments around the globe will play in establishing the electric vehicle market, and the challenges that manufacturers face in creating an industry that will be able to stand on its own as government influence diminishes. The study examines the key market drivers for the electrification of vehicles, the status of the R&D in batteries, the impact of declining battery production costs on vehicle sales, and the resale of batteries after their useful life in vehicles.

Key Questions Addressed:
•What are the key drivers of growth in the electric vehicle battery market?
•What are the key limiting factors in growing the electric vehicle battery market?
•How many batteries will be installed in plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles, and hybrids?
•How quickly will batteries be used in vehicle-to-grid (V2G) applications?
•What is the status of R&D in lithium ion batteries?
•What are the leading lithium ion battery chemistries and how do they differ?
•What are the commercialization challenges of lithium ion batteries?

Who needs this report?
•Vehicle manufacturers
•Automotive industry suppliers
•Fleet managers
•Battery suppliers
•Stationary energy storage suppliers
•Government agencies
•Smart grid companies
•Renewable energy companies
•Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Overview

1.2 Electric Vehicle Batteries

1.3 Lithium Ion Battery Production

2. Market Issues

2.1 Defining Advanced Batteries for the Transportation Market

2.2 Market Size and Segmentation

2.2.1 Plug-In Electric Vehicles

2.2.2 Plug-In Hybrid Conversions

2.2.3 Hybrid Electric Vehicles

2.3 Power and Energy Requirements

2.4 Industry Growth Drivers

2.4.1 Emissions Reductions

2.4.2 Government Incentives

2.4.2.1 United States

2.4.2.2 Europe

2.4.2.3 China

2.4.2.4 Japan

2.4.2.5 South Korea

2.4.2.6 India

2.5 New Financing Models

2.5.1.1 Battery-Switching Model

2.5.1.2 Quick-Charge DC Charging Model

2.5.2 Grid Applications

2.5.2.1 Vehicle-to-Grid Power Delivery

2.6 Early Adopters

2.6.1 Fleets

2.6.1.1 North America

2.6.1.2 China

2.6.1.3 Range Limitations

2.6.2 Utilities

2.7 Transitioning from Early Adopters to Mass Consumption

2.7.1 Passenger Vehicle Concerns

2.7.1.1 Sensitivity to Vehicle Price

2.7.1.2 Insensitivity to Fuel Prices

2.7.1.3 Ease of Electric Vehicle Purchase

2.7.1.4 Perceived Reliability

2.7.1.5 Perceived Resale Value

2.7.1.6 Limited Driving Range

3. Marketing and Commercialization

3.1 Minimum Requirements

3.2 Value Chain of the Lithium Ion Battery Industry

3.2.1 Raw Materials

3.2.2 Cell Components and Electronics

3.2.3 Integrated Systems (Cell and Pack Manufacturers)

3.2.4 Vehicles

3.2.5 Materials Recycling

3.3 Requirements for Commercialization

3.3.1 Cost

3.3.2 Capacity

3.3.3 Charge/Discharge Rate

3.3.4 Performance

3.4 State of Patents and R&D

4. Technology Issues

4.1 Competing EV Battery Technologies

4.1.1 Nickel-Metal Hydride

4.1.2 Lithium Ion

4.1.3 Ultracapacitors

4.2 Strengths and Weaknesses

4.2.1 Nickel-Metal Hydride

4.2.2 Lithium Ion

4.2.2.1 Lithium Ion Chemistries

4.3 Competing Technologies in Development

4.3.1 Lithium-Air

4.4 Access to Lithium

4.5 Safety

4.6 Implementation Issues

4.6.1 Battery Charging Levels

4.6.2 Sensitivity to Temperature

5. Key Industry Players

5.1 Battery Manufacturers

5.1.1 A123 Systems

5.1.2 Altair Nanotechnologies

5.1.3 BYD

5.1.4 Dow Kokam Joint Venture

5.1.5 Electrovaya

5.1.6 EnerDel

5.1.7 GP Batteries International Ltd

5.1.8 Hitachi Group

5.1.9 IBM

5.1.10 International Battery

5.1.11 Johnson Controls

5.1.12 K2 Energy Solutions, Inc.

5.1.13 LG Chem/Compact Power

5.1.14 Maxwell Technologies

5.1.15 Primearth EV Energy Co.

5.1.16 Paper Battery

5.1.17 Saft Batteries

5.1.18 SB LiMotive/Cobasys

5.1.19 Seeo

5.1.20 Valence Technology

5.2 Battery Customers

5.2.1 3Prong Power

5.2.2 Aeych

5.2.3 Better Place

5.2.4 BMW/Mini

5.2.5 Daimler

5.2.6 Ford Motor Co.

5.2.7 General Motors

5.2.8 Mitsubishi

5.2.9 Nissan-Renault

5.2.10 Plug-In Conversions Corp.

5.2.11 PSA Peugeot-Citroen

5.2.12 Sun Moksha

5.2.13 Tesla Motors

5.2.14 Toyota Motor Corp.

5.2.15 Volkswagen

6. Market Forecasts

6.1 Global Electric Vehicle Market

6.2 Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Market in the BEV Segment

6.3 Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Market in the PHEV Segment

6.4 Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Market in the HEV Segment

6.5 Trends in Various Regions and Global Lithium Ion Battery Markets

6.5.1 Asia Pacific

6.5.2 Europe

6.5.3 United States

6.5.4 Middle East/Africa

7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures
•Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Total Number of Patents, World Markets: 2011
•Total Number of U.S. Patents, World Markets: 2011
•Total Number of International Patents, World Markets: 2011
•PHEV/EV Models by Battery Chemistry
•BEV, PHEV, and HEV Light-Duty Consumer Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
•BEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2011-2017
•BEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2017
•PHEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2011-2017
•PHEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2017
•HEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2011-2017
•HEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2017
•High-Energy Lithium Ion Battery Estimated Cost Components: 2011
•Li-ion Manufacturing Steps and Opportunities for Cost Reduction

List of Tables
•Vehicle Roadmap for Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric Passenger Vehicles
•Hybrid Electric Vehicles Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Vehicle Battery Capacities, Select HEV and PEV Models
•U.S. Department of Energy Stimulus Grants for Battery Manufacturing
•Recent Funding for Battery-Related R&D: 2002-2010
•Installed New Capacity of Li-ion Batteries for Energy Storage Applications, World Markets: 2011-2020
•Total Number of Patents, World Markets: 2011
•Total Number of U.S. Patents, World Markets: 2011
•Total Number of International Patents, World Markets: 2011
•Top Six Applicants for Lithium Ion Battery Patents in the United States: 2011
•Characteristics of NiMH Batteries in Vehicle Applications
•Comparison of Battery Technologies
•Major Cathodes for Lithium Ion Batteries
•Lithium Ion Battery Components and Functions
•Characteristics of Carbon Ultracapacitors
•Battery Technology Strengths and Weaknesses
•Ranking of Li-ion Technology Options on Key Parameters
•Characteristics of Lithium Ion Battery Chemistries
•Battery Chemistry Adoption
•SAE Battery Charging Levels
•BEV Light-Duty Consumer Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
•PHEV Light-Duty Consumer Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
•HEV Light-Duty Consumer Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
•HEV/PHEV/BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Light-Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Lithium Ion Battery Selling Price, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Lithium Battery Sales Revenue in BEV Light-Duty Consumer Vehicle Segment by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Lithium Battery Sales in PHEV Light-Duty Consumer Vehicle Segment by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Lithium Battery Sales in HEV Light-Duty Consumer Vehicle Segment by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Lithium Battery Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017
•BEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2011-2017
•BEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2017
•PHEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2011-2017
•PHEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2017
•HEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2011-2017
•HEV Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2017
Source pikresearch.com

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