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Pike Research: Hybrid Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks

Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery Electric Medium and Heavy Trucks:
Market Analysis and Forecasts

As the global economy begins tentative steps toward recovery, truck manufacturers are looking to technologies that can help mitigate the rising cost of diesel fuel while meeting increasingly strict emissions requirements. Trucks that utilize electricity to meet these goals come in four variations: hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and plug-in electric power take-off to operate equipment onboard without using fuel. As the technology costs fall and diesel prices increase, the value proposition for hybrid trucks is strong, and Pike Research forecasts that sales will surpass 100,000 vehicles annually by 2017.

Most hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric, and battery electric trucks will utilize different chemistries of lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries. Pike Research expects that the use of nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries will peak in 2016, as vehicle manufacturers move their remaining systems toward Li-ion. Essentially, all battery electric trucks are anticipated to be Li-ion, as very little development work is underway in the MD or HD truck markets with other battery technologies. The Li-ion market is expected to reach 3.6 million kilowatt hours (kWh) globally in the medium and heavy duty truck market by 2017.

This Pike Research report examines the opportunities and challenges in the market for hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric medium and heavy-duty trucks. The report provides a comprehensive assessment of the different drivetrains, battery technologies, and key drivers of market growth. The report explores global government regulations regarding diesel emissions and vehicle purchase incentives and includes detailed forecasts through 2017. Key market players are also profiled.

Key Questions Addressed:
•What are the different types of hybrid systems used with truck chassis?
•How do electric power take off (EPTO) hybrid systems work to reduce fuel consumption?
•How do fleet managers decide if hybrid trucks will be cost effective for them?
•What are the different types of exhaust treatments used to meet current and future emissions regulations?
•What is the total cost of ownership of diesel trucks in comparison to hybrid and battery electric trucks?
•How do fuel costs impact demand for hybrid and plug-in electric trucks?
•What are the key technologies used in hybrid electric medium and heavy-duty trucks?
•What are the key drivers of growth in the HEV, PHEV, and BEV truck market?
•What are the fuel economy and emissions regulations for medium and heavy duty trucks across the globe?
•Are there purchase incentives for hybrid electric and plug-in electric trucks?
•How large are the hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric medium and heavy-duty truck markets and how fast are sales of these vehicles expected to grow?
•Who are the key industry players in the HEV, PHEV, and BEV truck market?

Who needs this report?
•Medium and heavy duty truck manufacturers
•OEM fleet sales managers
•Hybrid system manufacturers or integrators
•Truck body upfitters
•PTO equipment manufacturers
•Vehicle component suppliers
•Battery manufacturers
•Government agencies
•Industry associations
•Utilities

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Market Issues

2. Market Issues

2.1 Definitions

2.2 Overview by Truck Types

2.2.1 Medium Duty

2.2.1.1 Delivery Trucks

2.2.1.2 Non-Delivery Work Applications

2.2.2 Heavy Duty Trucks

2.2.2.1 Work Trucks

2.2.2.2 Over-the-Road Tractors

2.3 Battery Size for Hybrid Trucks

2.4 Industry Impact on the Hybrid Truck Market

2.4.1 Construction Industry

2.4.2 Pick-up and Delivery

2.4.3 Refuse Vehicles

2.4.4 Port/Railyard Operations

2.5 Hybrid Truck Ownership Costs

2.5.1 Recovery of Cost Premiums

2.5.2 Maintenance Costs

2.6 Vehicle Packaging Concerns

2.7 Alternative Fuel Vehicles Impact on the Market

2.7.1 Hydraulic Hybrids

2.7.2 Biodiesel

2.7.3 Natural Gas

2.7.4 Fuel Cell

3. Technology Issues

3.1 Hybrid Truck Drivetrains

3.1.1 Parallel Hybrid Electric Design

3.1.2 Series Hybrids

3.1.3 Mild EPTO Hybrids

3.2 Plug-in Hybrid Trucks

3.3 Battery Electric Trucks

3.3.1 Recharging Times

3.4 Recharging Infrastructure

3.4.1 Electric Utilities and Smart Grid Technologies

3.5 Electric Motors

3.6 Battery Technology

3.6.1 Lead-Acid Batteries

3.6.2 Nickel-Metal Hydride Batteries

3.6.3 Lithium ion Batteries

3.6.4 Ultracapacitors

3.7 Regenerative Braking

3.8 Alternative Power Units in Heavy Duty Class 7 & Class 8

3.9 Emissions Control Equipment

3.9.1 Selective Catalytic Reduction

3.9.2 Exhaust Gas Recirculation

4. Demand Drivers

4.1 Fuel Prices

4.2 Idle Reduction

4.3 Greening of Fleets

4.4 Government Emissions Regulations

4.4.1 United States

4.4.1.1 EPA Medium/Heavy Duty Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations

4.4.2 Canada

4.4.3 South America

4.4.4 Europe

4.4.5 Asia Pacific

4.4.5.1 Japan

4.4.5.2 China

4.4.6 Other Markets

4.5 Government Incentives

4.5.1 United States

4.5.1.1 California Hybrid Voucher Incentive Program

4.5.2 Canada

4.5.3 Europe

4.5.4 Asia Pacific

4.5.4.1 China’s 12th Five Year Plan

5. Key Industry Players

5.1 Original Equipment Manufacturers

5.1.1 Altec Industries

5.1.2 Azure Dynamics

5.1.3 Balqon Corporation

5.1.4 Beiqi Foton Motor Co. Ltd.

5.1.5 Crane Carrier Company

5.1.6 Daimler Trucks/Freightliner

5.1.7 Dueco/Odyne

5.1.8 Electric Vehicles International

5.1.9 Ford Motor Co.

5.1.10 Hino/Toyota Motor Corp.

5.1.11 Hyundai

5.1.12 Iveco

5.1.13 MAN SE

5.1.14 Mitsubishi Fuso Truck

5.1.15 Navistar/International Truck and Engine Corp.

5.1.16 Nissan and Renault

5.1.17 Proterra Inc.

5.1.18 PACCAR/Kenworth/Peterbilt/DAF

5.1.19 Smith Electric Vehicles

5.1.20 Terex Utilities

5.1.21 Volvo Trucks

5.1.22 Zero Truck

5.2 Key Suppliers

5.2.1 A123 Systems

5.2.2 Allison Transmission

5.2.3 ALTe

5.2.4 ArvinMeritor

5.2.5 BAE Systems

5.2.6 Bosch Rexroth AG

5.2.7 Dow Kokam Inc.

5.2.8 Eaton Corp.

5.2.9 Enova Systems Inc.

5.2.10 Parker Hannifin Corporation

5.2.11 Johnson Controls-Saft

5.2.12 LG Chemical/Compact Power

5.2.13 Primearth EV Energy (Panasonic EV Energy)

5.2.14 Remy, Inc.

5.2.15 Siemens

5.2.16 UQM Technologies

5.2.17 US Hybrid Corporation

5.2.18 Valence Technology Inc.

5.2.19 Wrightspeed Inc.

5.2.20 ZF Friedrichshafen AG

6. Market Forecasts

6.1 ICE Truck Forecast: 2011–2017

6.2 Global Hybrid Medium Duty Truck Sales Forecast: 2011–2017

6.2.1 North America

6.2.2 Europe

6.2.3 Asia Pacific

6.3 Global Hybrid Heavy Duty Truck Sales Forecast: 2011–2017

6.4 Global Plug-in Hybrid Truck Sales Forecast: 2011–2017

6.4.1 Global Plug-in Hybrid Medium Duty Truck Sales Forecast: 2011–2017

6.4.2 Global Plug-in Hybrid Heavy Duty Truck Sales Forecast: 2011–2017

6.5 Global Battery Electric Truck Sales Forecast: 2011–2017

6.5.1 Global Battery Electric Medium Duty Truck Sales Forecast: 2011–2017

6.5.2 Global Battery Electric Heavy Duty Truck Sales Forecast: 2011–2017

6.6 United States Truck Sales Forecast by Drive Type: 2011–2017

6.7 MD/HD Truck Battery Forecast, World Markets: 2011–2017

6.8 Summary and Conclusions

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures
•Vehicle Segment Percentage of Fleet Sales, United States: 2011
•MD/HD HEV Truck Sales as Percentage of ICE Trucks, World Markets: 2011, 2017
•HEV/PHEV/BEV MD/HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Trucks by Use, United States: 2002
•MD/HD Truck Sales and Diesel Prices, United States: 2000-2011
•ICE MD/HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet HEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet HEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, North America: 2011-2017
•Fleet HEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, Europe: 2011-2017
•Fleet HEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, Asia Pacific: 2011-2017
•Fleet HEV Heavy Duty (Class 7-8) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet Sales of PHEVs, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet PHEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet PHEV Heavy Duty (Class 7-8) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Battery Electric MD/HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet BEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet BEV Heavy Duty (Class 7-8) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•MD/HD Truck Sales by Drivetrain Type, United States: 2011-2017
•MD/HD Truck HEV NiMH Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•MD/HD Truck HEV/PEV Li-ion Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•United States Truck Classes
•Cutaway-Cab and Stripped-Chassis Vehicles
•HTUF Class 4 Parcel Drive Cycle
•Utility Service Truck Drive Cycle
•Cab-and-Chassis Vehicles
•U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector
•Construction Industry Output: 2010
•Nonresidential Construction Spending, United States: 2008-2011
•Eaton Corp. Hydraulic Series Hybrid System
•Hybrid Truck Electric System
•Typical State of Charge for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
•Diesel Engine Emission Control System
•Typical Truck Assembly Process Flow

List of Tables
•European Vehicle Classes
•Battery Size Used by Selected Hybrid Trucks
•Typical Truck Costs
•Total Truck Cost of Ownership
•FedEx Express Vehicle Operating Costs by System: 2011
•Battery Type Comparison
•United States Truck Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations: 2011
•Combination Tractor Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations: MY 2017
•Vocational Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations: MY 2017
•California Hybrid Voucher Incentive Project: 2011
•Trucks by Use, United States: 2002
•Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales, United States: 2000-2011
•Average Diesel Price per Gallon, United States: 2000-2011
•Fleet Sales by Segment, United States: 2011-2017
•Mix of Fleet Sales by Segment, United States: 2011-2017
•ICE MD/HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet HEV Light Duty Unit Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet HEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Annual Fleet HEV Heavy Duty (Class 7-8) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet PHEV Light Duty Unit Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet PHEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet PHEV Heavy Duty (Class 7-8) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet BEV Light Duty Unit Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet BEV Medium Duty (Class 3-6) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Fleet BEV Heavy Duty (Class 7-8) Truck Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•Medium Duty Truck Sales by Drivetrain Type, United States: 2011-2017
•Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Drivetrain Type, United States: 2011-2017
•Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Drivetrain Type, United States: 2011-2017
•MD/HD Truck HEV NiMH Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
•MD/HD Truck HEV/PEV Li-ion Sales, World Markets: 2011-2017
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