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USA: DEPLOYMENT ROLLOUT ESTIMATE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES 2011-2015

2015
BY
CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH
ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN
JANUARY 2011
Center for Automotive Research
1000 Victors Way, Suite 200
Ann Arbor, MI 48108
734.662.1287

www.cargroup.org
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page i
Table of Contents
List of Tables ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ii
List of Figures ………………………………………………………………………………………………… ii
Acknowledgements ………………………………………………………………………………………… iii
Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 1
Automaker Production and Sales Announcements …………………………………………… 1
Fleet Vehicle Investments ……………………………………………………………………………….. 4
Government-Industry Partnerships ………………………………………………………………….. 5
Clean Cities …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5
The EV Project ………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6
ChargePoint America ……………………………………………………………………………………… 7
Better Place ………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 8
Other Partnerships and Programs ……………………………………………………………………. 8
Electric Vehicle Ready Communities ……………………………………………………………….. 9
Consumer Demand ………………………………………………………………………………………… 9
Infrastructure ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 11
Electric Vehicle Deployment Projections ………………………………………………………… 13
Geographic Distribution of Hybrid Vehicles ………………………………………………………. 13
Production and Sales of Electric Vehicles ………………………………………………………… 16
Estimates of Sales by State …………………………………………………………………………… 17
Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 20
References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 22
Appendix: Detailed Hybrid Incentives by State ……………………………………………….. 26
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page ii
List of Tables
Table 1: Initial Deployment States for Selected Electric Vehicles …………………………….. 3
Table 2: Recovery Act Awards ……………………………………………………………………………. 6
Table 3: State Incentive Strategies for All 50 States …………………………………………….. 10
Table 4: State Incentive Strategies for Top 10 States …………………………………………… 11
Table 5: Retail Hybrid Registrations for Top 20 States………………………………………….. 15
Table 6: Retail Hybrid Registrations by State ………………………………………………………. 16
Table 7: Expected Distribution of Electric Vehicles ………………………………………………. 19
List of Figures
Figure 1: Electric Charging and Hydrogen Fueling Stations …………………………………… 13
Figure 2: Retail Hybrid Registrations by State per 10,000 Residents ………………………. 14
Figure 3: Retail Hybrid Registrations: Percent of Total Hybrid Fleet ……………………….. 15
Figure 4: National Electric Vehicle Adoption Assumptions …………………………………….. 18
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page iii
Acknowledgements
This study is the result of a group effort. The authors would like to thank our colleague at the Center for Automotive Research, Brett Smith, for his guidance and assistance with content.
Funding for this study was provided by a research grant from General Motors.
Kim Hill, MPP
Director, Sustainability & Economic Development Strategies Group
Director, Automotive Communities Partnership
Associate Director, Research
Joshua Cregger, MS
Industry Analyst
Center for Automotive Research
1000 Victors Way, Suite 200
Ann Arbor, MI 48108
734.662.1287
www.cargroup.org
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 1
Introduction
The purpose of this study is not to forecast sales of electric vehicles; rather, this study‘s aim is to estimate electric vehicle deployment by state. In order to create these estimates, CAR examined forecasts of total electric vehicle sales in the U.S. to generate a reasonable approximation of what electric vehicle sales might look like for the period 2012 to 2015. The national estimates used in this paper do not constitute a CAR forecast and only reflect projections that were available at the time of this study. In the study, Table 6 denotes the percentages used by CAR to divide national electric vehicle sales among states. With the state percentages, one could select any forecast and generate state-by-state results for that forecast.
In recent years, numerous announcements have been made by motor vehicle companies—big and small—regarding plans to produce electric-powered or electric-assisted vehicles. These include battery electric (BEV), extended range, plug-in hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles. Many businesses, organizations, communities and states are contemplating what level of support they would like to provide toward the deployment of these vehicles on their roads. This support could take many forms, including installation of recharging infrastructure, creation of monetary purchase incentives, provision of priority parking spaces, access to carpool lanes, purchases of these vehicles, and many other options. In determining whether or not to offer many of these incentives, stakeholders need an idea of how many drivers will be utilizing potential programs. For instance, at the state level, it may be important to know the likely deployment plan of these vehicles across the 50 states, and how such state and local incentives could play a role in determining the timing and quantity of distribution in each state. This information could help policy experts decide how to design incentives, which incentive programs to enact, and how much funding to budget toward particular initiatives.
The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) and its Automotive Communities Partnership (ACP) have undertaken this study to estimate the total number of vehicles projected to be produced each year and the likely deployment in the first few years of production. In addition, using national data on state market shares of hybrid vehicles as a proxy for likely electric vehicle demand, a reasonable estimation for the expected geographic distribution patterns of electric vehicles by state was created.
Automaker Production and Sales Announcements
The following information was gleaned from press releases and news articles during the fall of 2010.
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 2
General Motors began production of the Chevrolet Volt in early November with the intent to have initial sales be divided among markets in California, Texas, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan, and Washington D.C. by the end of 2010. Within 12-18 months after entering these initial markets, the Volt will be sold nationwide. Production of the Volt will be at GM‘s Detroit-Hamtramck assembly facility; batteries will be assembled at a facility in Brownstown Township. Both facilities are located in Michigan.1 According to a GM press release, there will be U.S. sales of 10,000 Volts in 2011 and 45,000 in 2012.2
Nissan plans to begin selling the LEAF in California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and Tennessee, beginning in December 2010. Sales will begin in Texas and Hawaii in January 2011; in the spring of 2011, sales will commence in North Carolina, Florida, Washington D.C., Virginia, Maryland, and Georgia. By late 2011, the LEAF will be sold nationwide. Initial production of the LEAF will be in Oppama, Japan; battery production for the LEAF will occur in Zama, Japan. Nissan‘s Smyrna, Tennessee assembly facility will begin production of the LEAF in 2012. Annual production capacity in Tennessee for the LEAF will eventually be 150,000 vehicles.3 Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of Renault-Nissan, did not release estimates for how many Nissan LEAFs he expected to sell in the first three years; however, he did say that, globally, the LEAF would hit 500,000 annually after three years.4
Ford‘s first all-electric passenger car, the Focus Electric, will be available in late 2011. Initial markets will include 19 cities across 15 states. The cities selected for introduction of the Focus Electric are Atlanta, Austin, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, New York, Orlando, Phoenix, Portland, Raleigh Durham, Richmond, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tucson, and Washington, D.C. The Focus Electric will be produced at Ford‘s Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne, Michigan.5 In a press release, Ford indicated that initial markets for the Focus Electric were chosen based on several criteria including past hybrid purchasing trends, utility company collaboration, and commitment to electrification by local governments. Sue Cischke, Ford‘s Vice President for Sustainability, Environment and Safety Engineering, has stated that during
1 GM. (2010). ―Chevrolet Invites Students Nationwide to an ‗Electric‘ Education.‖ General Motors. November 1, 2010. .
2 GM. (2010). ―6,348 Get Behind Wheel During Chevy Volt Unplugged Tour.‖ General Motors. November 24, 2010. .
3 Nissan. (2010). ―2011 Nissan LEAF Press Kit: Overview.‖ Nissan North America. .
4 Wald, Matthew L. (2010). ―Nissan Will Sell 500,000 Electric Cars a Year by 2013, Says Chief.‖ New York Times. November 16, 2010. .
5 Ford. (2010). ―Ford Names First Markets to Sell Focus Electric, The Company‘s First All-Electric Passenger Car.‖ Ford Motor Company. November 16, 2010. .
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 3
2012, Ford expects initial annual production of Focus Electrics to fall between that of the Chevrolet Volt (10,000-15,000 units) and the Nissan LEAF (20,000 units).6
While the electric vehicles discussed above will eventually be available nationwide, GM, Nissan, and Ford have all chosen initial deployment markets. Although there are different strategies for deployment, some states stand out as important markets. For instance, California is an initial launch state for the Volt, LEAF, and Focus Electric–likely due to its position as the largest automobile market in the U.S., as well as its relatively high penetration of hybrids and regulatory environment conducive to electric vehicle adoption. Other popular states for deployment include Arizona, Michigan (where Ford and GM Headquarters are located), New York, Oregon, Texas, Washington, and the District of Columbia. Table 1 summarizes the initial deployment locations for the three electric vehicles.
Table 1: Initial Deployment States for Selected Electric Vehicles
Source: CAR Research
In addition to large automakers like GM, Nissan, and Ford, small producers will also be rolling out electric vehicles. Tesla Motors, which began selling production models of its Tesla Roadster in 2008, is a particularly visible example. Tesla sold 450 vehicles in 2009 and in the beginning of 2010, had built a cumulative total of 1,000 Tesla Roadsters and delivered them to customers in 43 states and 19 countries.7 Within a few years, Tesla will begin selling its Model S in the U.S. Other high profile electric vehicles soon to debut in the U.S. include the 2011 Fisker Karma, 2011 Coda Sedan, 2010 MINI E, 2012 Mitsubishi i-MiEV, 2011 smart fortwo electric drive, and 2012 Toyota RAV4 EV.
Some automotive experts have suggested that electric vehicles will make up about five percent of the global auto market by 2020. Derrick Kuzak, Ford‘s head of product development, and Prabhakar Patil, CEO of LG Chem, agree with the figure of five percent of the auto market being battery electric vehicles. Nissan‘s Ghosn is more optimistic, expecting around 10 percent of the market to be pure electric vehicles, but BorgWarner Inc. CEO, Timothy Manganello, projects that only two to five percent of the market will be electric vehicles by 2020.8
6 Priddle, Alisa and Shepardson, David. (2010). ―Ford ups per-vehicle revenue.‖ The Detroit News. October 20, 2010. .
7 Tesla. (2010). ―Tesla Celebrates 1,000th Roadster.‖ January 12, 2010. .
8 Automotive News. (2010). ―Electric vehicles seen as sliver of 2020 market.‖ Automotive News Europe. November 22, 2010. .
ModelAZCACOCTDCFLGAILMAMINCNJNYORTNTXVAWAChevrolet VoltXXXXXXXNissan LEAFXXXXXFord Focus ElectricXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 4
Fleet Vehicle Investments
Purchases of fleet vehicles have been vital to the deployment of hybrid electric vehicles and will also be an important factor in the successful deployment of full electric vehicles. The federal government has been one of the largest purchasers of hybrid fleet vehicles. In the past two fiscal years, the federal government has purchased 64 percent of all GM Chevy Malibu hybrid models, 29 percent of all Ford Fusion hybrid models, and 14 percent of all Ford Escape hybrids.9 Government agencies have said they will purchase electric models being introduced by automakers in the near future. The General Services Administration currently has a solicitation out for 100 electric vehicles and could make a decision on its purchases as early as December.10
General Electric has announced that the company will purchase 25,000 electric vehicles to be used as part of its own fleet as well as for its fleet customers. At least 15,000 of the vehicles will be used to replace half of the 30,000 vehicles in its global fleet. GE plans to purchase its first 12,000 electric vehicles from GM, beginning with the Chevrolet Volt in 2011. GE has an investment in providing complementary technologies for electric vehicles (such as charging stations), and the company would stand to gain from successful EV deployment–the electric vehicle market could deliver up to $500 million in GE revenue over the next three years.11
Enterprise Holdings, the largest rental car company in the nation, has announced that it plans to introduce electric vehicles into its fleet of over one million vehicles. Its fleet purchases for the next year will include as many as 500 Nissan LEAF models and as many as 100 Coda EV sedans.12
Several corporations have expanded their heavy duty fleets to include electric vehicles as well. Frito-Lay, Staples, and FedEx have all ordered electric delivery trucks. Frito-Lay has ordered 176, Staples has ordered 41, and FedEx has ordered 19.13 The vice president of fleet services at Staples has suggested that it is likely that Staples may purchase another 40 electric delivery trucks. One producer of these trucks, Smith Electric Vehicles, has received a $32 million grant from the U.S. federal government to produce its first 500 electric vehicles, allowing the company to ramp up production and lower costs to customers. Smith‘s CEO has claimed that the company is on track to
9 Keane, Angela Greiling and Green, Jeff. (2010). ―Obama Bolsters U.S. Hybrid Auto Sales as Popularity Among Consumers Wanes.‖ Bloomberg. November 23, 2010. .
10 Medici, Andy. ―Feds revving up electric car fleet.‖ Federal Times. November 13, 2010. .
11 GE. (2010). ―GE Announces Largest Single Electric Vehicle Commitment, Commits to Convert Half of Global Fleet By 2015.‖ General Electric. November 11, 2010. < http://www.genewscenter.com/Press-Releases/GE-ANNOUNCES-LARGEST-SINGLE-ELECTRIC-VEHICLE-COMMITMENT-COMMITS-TO-CONVERT-HALF-OF-GLOBAL-FLEET-BY-2015-2cb0.aspx>.
12 King, Danny. (2010). ―Public Policy Changes for Fleet Purchases May Quadruple EV Demand – Coalition.‖ Edmunds. November 15, 2010. .
13 Ramsey, Mike. (2010). ―As Electric Vehicles Arrive, Firms See Payback in Trucks.‖ The Wall Street Journal. December 8, 2010. .
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 5
lower its costs such that, once the government money runs out, the company will not have to increase prices to its customers.
Electric vehicles may be particularly advantageous for use in fleets for several reasons. Fleets generally have higher utilization rates for their vehicles, helping reduce per-mile fueling costs. In addition, electric vehicles have maintenance costs that are about half those of conventional gasoline vehicles. Route predictability that is common for many fleets can reduce range anxiety issues, and fleets can take advantage of cheaper commercial and industrial electricity rates, decreasing the cost of running the vehicle beyond what can be achieved by residential consumers.14
Government-Industry Partnerships
Clean Cities
Clean Cities is a partnership sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE‘s) Vehicle Technologies Program. It has almost 90 local coalitions and more than 6,500 public and private stakeholders. The mission of Clean Cities is to reduce petroleum consumption in the transportation sector. On August 26, 2009, the DOE announced the recipients of 25 cost-share grants totaling $300 million from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Of the 25 projects, 11 involve investment in vehicle electrification. In total, nearly 1,600 electric chargers will be installed and more than 600 electric vehicles will be purchased. Although almost a third of the money went to projects in Texas, New York, and California, the projects that included installation of electric vehicle infrastructure were dispersed across the country, with significant investments occurring in the Midwest.15 Table 2 displays the Recovery Act Awards for the Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicle Pilot Program which included an electric vehicle component.
14 King, Danny. (2010). ―Public Policy Changes for Fleet Purchases May Quadruple EV Demand – Coalition.‖ Edmunds. November 15, 2010. .
15 U.S. DOE. (2009). ―Clean Cities Recovery Act Awards for Alternative and Advanced Vehicles.‖ U.S. Department of Energy, Recovery and Investment, Clean Cities. August 5, 2009. .
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 6
Table 2: Recovery Act Awards for Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicle Pilot Program
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
The EV Project
On August 5, 2010, the DOE awarded a $99.8 million grant to Electric Transportation Engineering Corporation (eTec), a subsidiary of ECOtality North America for ―The EV Project,‖ which will deploy electric vehicles and charging infrastructure in the United States. Consumers who qualify to participate in the project will receive a free residential charger, and the majority of installation costs will be covered by the project. When applying for the proposal, eTec had the support of more than 40 government and industry partners, including Nissan North America.
Originally the project involved installing approximately 2,500 chargers and deployment of 1,000 Nissan LEAF electric vehicles in each of five strategic markets located in Arizona, California, Oregon, Tennessee, and Washington. Cities selected for
Project TitleLead CityStateElectric ChargersElectric VehiclesConnecticut Clean Cities Future Fuels Project (Greater New Haven Clean Cities Coalition)Bethany CT70Chicago Area Alternative Fuels Deployment Project (City of Chicago, Department of Environment)Chicago IL1312Michigan Green Fleets (Clean Energy Coalition)Ypsilanti MI77Midwest Region Alternative Fuels Project: Public fueling infrastructure for CNG, B20, E85, and electric charge points; AFV using CNG, HEV, PHEV, EV, B20, CNG, E85, and LPG (Metropolitan Energy Information Center)Kansas City MO32Carolinas Blue Skies & Green Jobs Initiative (Triangle J Council of Governments)Research Triangle Park NC13256New York Statewide Alternative Fuel Vehicle Program for CNG, LPG, EV, and HEV vehicles and fueling stations (New York State Energy Research and Development Authority)Albany NY7511Ohio Advanced Transportation Partnership (Clean Fuels Ohio Clean Cities Coalition)Columbus OH3738North Central Texas Alternative Fuel and Advanced Technology Investments (North Central Texas Council of Governments)Arlington TX434Clean Cities Transportation Sector Petroleum Reduction Technologies Program – Utah (Utah Clean Cities Coalition)Salt Lake City UT10Puget Sound Clean Cities Petroleum Reduction Project (Puget Sound Clean Air Agency)Seattle WA1173202Wisconsin Clean Transportation Program (State of Wisconsin)Madison WI1254
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 7
deployment included Phoenix and Tucson (AZ), San Diego (CA), Portland, Eugene, Salem, Corvallis (OR), Seattle (WA), and Nashville, Knoxville, and Chattanooga (TN).16
In the summer of 2010, the project expanded to include the cities of Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston (TX), Los Angeles (CA), and Washington D.C. and received an additional $15 million from the DOE. With matching funds from partners, the total funding for eTec‘s project is $230 million. In addition, the project expanded to include 6,000 Nissan LEAFs, Chevrolet Volts in some markets, and a total of 15,000 charging stations.17
ChargePoint America
The ChargePoint America program is a $37 million program sponsored by Coulomb Technologies and made possible through a $15 million investment of stimulus money from the U.S. DOE. Ford, Chevrolet, and Smart USA are part of ChargePoint America, which covers nine regions. These regions include Bellevue-Redmond, WA; Sacramento, San Jose-San Francisco Bay Area, and Los Angeles, CA; Austin, TX; Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Orlando, FL; and Washington D.C. The three automakers plan to offer the Chevrolet Volt, Ford Transit Connect, Ford Focus BEV and smart fortwo electric drive in the nine regions covered by the ChargePoint America program, beginning in 2010 and 2011. Between now and October 2011, the program will install 5,000 220 volt (level 2) charging stations, both public and private, free of charge. In order for individuals to be eligible for a station, they must reside in one of the nine regions and purchase one of the aforementioned vehicles. From then until October 2013, the program will collect data on vehicle charging.18
Public and commercial charging infrastructure has been installed by Coulomb Technologies in 29 states as well as Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico.19 Infrastructure has been installed by Coulomb Technologies in Arizona; San Francisco, San Jose, Walnut Creek, and Sonoma, California; Colorado; Washington, D.C.; Florida; Chicago, Illinois; Massachusetts; Detroit, Michigan; Minneapolis, Minnesota; New York; Cary, North Carolina; Ohio; Portland, Oregon; Nashville, Tennessee; Texas; Seattle, Washington; and Wisconsin. Currently, there are 269 public and commercial charging stations operating, according to the ChargePoint map. Of these, 58 stations are in California, 40 are in Texas, 29 are in Michigan, 27 are in Illinois, 23 are in Oregon, 14 are in Florida and 11 each are in New York and Washington.
16 ECOtality. (2009). ―ECOtality‘s eTec Awarded $100 Million for Transportation Electrification.‖ ECOtality North America. August 5, 2009. .
17 ECOtality. (2010). ―The EV Project Expands To Texas.‖ ECOtality North America. July 15, 2010. .
18 ChargePoint America. (2010). ―ChargePoint America.‖ Accessed December 2, 2010. .
19 Coulomb Technologies. (2010). ―ChargePoint.‖ Accessed December 2, 2010. .
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 8
Better Place
Better Place has begun work with stakeholders in California and Hawaii to promote electric vehicle deployment in those states. The U.S. Department of Transportation, via the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, has provided support to Better Place in deploying a switchable battery, electric taxi program to the San Francisco Bay Area in partnership with the cities of San Francisco and San Jose. In Hawaii, Better Place has partnered with Kyo-ya Hotels & Resorts‘ Sheraton Waikiki Resort and Hawaiian Electric Company. The project involves installing a small number of charge spots in Waikiki and around Oahu.20
Other Partnerships and Programs
Several smaller scale programs to promote successful deployment of electric vehicles have been put in place. Some involve partnerships between communities, universities, businesses, and governmental entities, while others are undertaken by a single stakeholder. The following list highlights a few of these smaller programs:
 The town of Wytheville, VA and local businesses are working with a charging infrastructure provider, Evatran, to field test wireless charging technology at charging stations in town.21
 In Oregon, Portland General Electric (PGE) had installed 12 charging stations in Portland and Salem by September 2008.22 Shorepower Technologies was a partner in the project, designing and manufacturing the charging stations. Over the past two years, PGE worked with stakeholders in state and local government, higher education, and businesses to promote EV adoption and as a result, has been able to secure a spot for Oregon as one of the deployment states for ―The EV Project.‖23
 By 2008, Washington‘s King County was already providing public charging access at some park-and-ride lots and was adding access at newly constructed garages. The cities of Edmonds and Lacy, WA also offered recharging access near their city halls.24
20 Better Place. (2010). ―Global Progress.‖ Accessed December 2, 2010. .
21 Wilson, Susan. (2010). ―Evatran provides a plugless solution for EVs.‖ GREEN.BLORGE. March 1, 2010. .
22 Doggett, Scott. (2008). ―Oregon Utility, Readying for Waves of EVs, Installs Charging Stations in Two Cities.‖ Green Car Advisor. July 3, 2008. .
23 PGE. (2010). ―Expanding EVs in Oregon.‖ Accessed December 2, 2010. .
24 Le, Phuong. (2008). ―Electric vehicle plug-in scarcity sparks creativity.‖ Associated Press. October 20, 2008. .
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 9
 In June 2009, the Travis Park United Methodist Church in San Antonio, TX installed a charging station in their parking lot; it was the first publicly accessible vehicle charging station in San Antonio.25
 Houston‘s city government has already installed 10 charging stations and is planning on installing 15 more stations. A Houston utility company, NRG, plans to add 40 to 50 rapid-recharging stations around the city. These stations will be installed along Interstate 10 such that a vehicle driving along the route will never be more than five miles from a station. In planning these stations, NRG partnered with retailers such as Starbucks so drivers can keep occupied while their vehicles charge.26
Electric Vehicle Ready Communities
Consumer Demand
Ford indicated that, when choosing initial markets for deploying its electric vehicles, it considered past hybrid purchasing trends, utility company collaboration, and commitment to electrification by local governments. In their ―PEV Readiness Study,‖ Roland Berger Strategy Consultants note that cities play a crucial role in successfully implementing electric vehicles and that they should focus on developing robust plans, engaging and partnering with stakeholders, facilitating permitting, offering a mix of non-financial incentives, and educating consumers.27 Also, when considering consumer readiness, the study examines factors behind consumer demand including environmental sensitivity; status and image considerations; wealth, premium, and total cost of ownership savings; awareness of benefits; and other transit options. These factors have affected hybrid vehicle purchasing decisions in the past, explaining Ford‘s rationale in the use of hybrid purchasing trends in deciding its initial markets for deployment.
Consumer demand can also be influenced by incentives; the pattern of hybrid electric vehicle deployment can be partly explained by the incentives offered to consumers. Incentives can be monetary (e.g., grants, rebates, tax credits, loans, or registration fee exemptions) or nonmonetary such as having access to High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV)/High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes, discounted or more convenient parking, or exemptions from vehicle inspections and testing. Table 3 displays data on past and present incentives for hybrid vehicles by state.
25 TPUMC. (2009). ―Electric Vehicle Charging Station.‖ Travis Park United Methodist Church. June, 2009. .
26 Galbraith, Kate. (2010). ―With Subsidies, Electric Cars Gaining Foothold in Texas.‖ The Texas Tribune. July 23, 2010. .
27 Roland Berger. (2010). ―PEV Readiness Study.‖ Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Rocky Mountain Institute, Project Get Ready. Fall 2010. .
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 10
Table 3: State Incentive Strategies for All 50 States and DC
Source: CAR Research
Colorado and California are leaders in terms of the variety of incentives offered. Other states that demonstrated a commitment to promoting hybrid vehicle ownership include Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, and Utah.28,29,30,31,32
28 McCarthy, Kevin E. (2008). ―State Incentives for Hybrid Vehicles.‖ National Conference of State Legislatures. August 2008. .
29 Vaidyanathan, Shruti. (2010) ―Light-Duty Hybrid and Diesel Vehicle Tax Credits in the Energy Bill.‖ American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy. March 31, 2010. .
30 UCS. (2010). ―State and Federal Hybrid Incentives.‖ Union of Concerned Scientists. .
31 HybridCARS. (2010). ―Hybrid and Plug-in Incentives and Rebates – Region by Region.‖ HybridCARS. March 8, 2010. .
32 DOE. (2010). ―Federal & State Incentives & Laws.‖ Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, Alternative Fuels & Advanced Vehicles Data Center. November 16, 2010. .
StateStateRebates/GrantsTax Credit/ExemptionReduced Local Registration FeeHOV/HOT lanes Discounted/Convenient ParkingInspection Exemption10-Year Plan for Hybrid AdoptionTaxi Use ExtensionGreen Vehicle LoansR&DInsurance DiscountHotel DiscountNumber of Governemnt IncentivesNumber of Private IncentivesRebates/GrantsTax Credit/ExemptionReduced Local Registration FeeHOV/HOT lanes Discounted/Convenient ParkingInspection Exemption10-Year Plan for Hybrid AdoptionTaxi Use ExtensionGreen Vehicle LoansR&DInsurance DiscountHotel DiscountNumber of Governemnt IncentivesNumber of Private IncentivesALX01NEX01AK00NVXXX21AZXX11NHX01ARX01NJXX11CAXXXXXX42NMXXX21COXXXXXX51NYXXXX31CTXXX21NCXX11DEX01NDX01DCXXXX22OHX01FLXXX31OKXX11GAXX11ORXXXX22HI00PAXX11IDXX11RIX01ILXXXX31SCXXX21INX01SDX01IAX01TNXXX21KSX01TXXX11KYX01UTXXXX31LAXX11VTX01MEXX11VAXX21MDXXXX31WAXXX21MAXXXX31WVX10MIXX11WIX01MNX01WYX01MSX01USAX10MOX01MTXX11459514111147TotalsIncentive TypeIncentive TypeTotalsState Total61531115
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 11
To examine the correlation between hybrid adoption and hybrid incentives, the leaders in terms of hybrid adoption can be compared to other states. On average, the top ten states in terms of annual hybrids registered per 10,000 residents had 1.7 of the government incentives and 1.2 of the private incentives discussed above. This compares to a national average of only 1.2 government incentives and 1.0 private incentive. This means that among the top fifth of states with greater hybrid adoption, there was an average of 32 percent more incentives than among states nationwide. Table 4 shows the top ten ranked states in terms of hybrid adoption and their incentive programs. Key among these incentives were rebates, tax exemptions, and parking incentives.
Table 4: State Incentive Strategies for Top 10 States in terms of Hybrids per 10,000 Residents
Source: CAR Research, U.S. Census
Infrastructure
Charging infrastructure will be an important factor influencing adoption of electric vehicles. There are two types of chargers: those for private use installed in homes and businesses and those for public use installed at charging stations. Private chargers are
StateHybrid Penetration RankingRebates/GrantsTax Credit/ExemptionReduced Local Registration FeeHOV/HOT lanes Discounted/Convenient ParkingInspection Exemption10-Year Plan for Hybrid AdoptionTaxi Use ExtensionGreen Vehicle LoansR&DInsurance DiscountHotel DiscountNumber of Governemnt IncentivesNumber of Private IncentivesVT1X01WA2XXX21CA3XXXXXX42SC4XXX21MA5XXXX31CT6XXX21VA7XXX21NH8X01OR9XXXX22MO10X010.20.50.00.20.50.10.10.00.00.10.90.3171.20.10.30.10.20.30.10.00.00.00.00.90.11.21.0Incentive TypeTotalsUSA AVGTop 10 AVG
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 12
essential for electric vehicle adoption; verified installation of proper charging equipment is often required by automakers for consumers to be eligible to purchase their products. For instance, Nissan requires prospective purchasers of the LEAF to have a home charging unit installed by Nissan’s exclusive contractor, AeroVironment, or sign a waiver certifying that they have installed their own charging equipment.
Public charging infrastructure is less vital to successful electric vehicle deployment, but public chargers are still necessary to overcome range anxiety. It is unlikely that a region can successfully deploy electric vehicles without many public charging stations in place. Some believe that, initially, people who purchase electric vehicles will not be recharging at work or other public places; they will live close enough to work to make round trips and recharge at home. The Roland Berger report suggests that even with only one public charging station per 100 electric vehicles, range anxiety should be overcome during the initial deployment of electric vehicles. This situation would obviously change as sales expand nationwide. Communities that already have the beginnings of a public electric vehicle charging network are better poised to expand their network and successfully deploy electric vehicles, overcoming purchaser anxiety.
Currently, California has the majority of the electric recharging stations, with 431 of the total 603 listed in the DOE‘s database.33 Distant followers include Oregon with 39, Texas with 22, and Washington with 15. Illinois has 9, and Florida and Hawaii have 7 each. There is also a significant charging station investment in the New England states. Hydrogen vehicles are largely limited to fleet vehicles; hence, nearly all of the hydrogen refueling stations currently in place are for private access only. Figure 1 displays the geographic distribution of electric charging and hydrogen fueling stations.
33 DOE. (2010). ―Alternative Fueling Station Database Custom Query.‖ U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels & Advanced Vehicles Data Center. November 15, 2010. .
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 13
Figure 1: Electric Charging and Hydrogen Fueling Stations in the U.S.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
Electric Vehicle Deployment Projections
This study assumes that hybrid adoption is a reasonable proxy for early electric vehicle adoption. Spatial patterns between hybrids and electric vehicles are apparent: national hybrid distribution mirrors both strategic electric vehicle deployment regions announced by automakers as well as location of electric charging stations. In this portion of the study, spatial distribution of hybrid sales will be examined, vehicle sales will be estimated by year, and estimates of how many electric vehicles will be sold in each state will be made.
Geographic Distribution of Hybrid Vehicles
Hybrid registrations could be an important indicator in determining electric vehicle demand. By examining registrations of hybrids by state, it can be seen that automakers have chosen initial rollout markets for their electric vehicles which have relatively high percentage of hybrid registrations. California, New York, Texas, and Florida are the largest hybrid markets in the nation (each with over 15,000 retail hybrid registrations in 2009) and have also been selected as initial rollout markets for electric vehicles.
© Center for Automotive Research 2011 Page 14
Besides looking at size of current hybrid markets, it is useful to examine their penetration when trying to determine support for adoption. Normalizing registrations by population helps distinguish between which states have populations that have been more willing to purchase hybrids and which simply have large populations. Figure 2 displays retail hybrid registrations per 10,000 residents. Among the highest densities are West Coast, New England, Mid-Atlantic, and Southwestern states, all of which contain states that are deployment locations.
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