The automotive industry will launch dozens of new plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles as it begins the gradual process of moving away from petroleum based fuels and towards battery power. These vehicles will rely almost exclusively on lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries, while hybrid vehicles will slowly switch from nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) technology. However, Li-ion batteries today increase the cost of vehicles by 30 to 50 percent, which limits the attractiveness of the vehicles.
The initial market for electric vehicles will be largely dependent on government subsidies and incentives; significant reductions in battery cost are seen as a requirement for the industry to grow to the nearly $8 billion market that Pike Research forecasts by 2015. Japan, which has been a leader in batteries for hybrid vehicles, is likely to continue to play a leading role, while China, Korea and Japan are also likely to all be significant suppliers of electric vehicle batteries. There are currently more than a half dozen battery chemistries with unique properties for power, energy density and life cycle performance that are being commercialized, but Pike Research anticipates a consolidation in the market.
This Pike Research report outlines the critical role that governments around the globe will play in establishing the electric vehicle market, and the challenges that manufacturers face in creating an industry that will be able to stand on its own as government influence diminishes. We examine the key market drivers for the electrification of vehicles and the potential for batteries to participate in vehicle to grid services, and the impact on declining battery production costs on vehicle sales and the resale of batteries after their useful life in vehicles.
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